Dr. Leroy Almendarez explains the tariff logic—but the deeper question is who controls the power, who absorbs the cost, and whether Belize is moving toward energy sovereignty or another form of dependency.

By: Omar Silva – Editor/Publisher

National Perspective Belize – Digital

www.nationalperspectivebz.com

Belize City: Monday 4th May 2026

Electricity: The Missing Chapter in Dr. Almendarez’s Analysis

Dr. Almendarez’s paper is technically useful, but it is not complete. It explains why electricity prices rise, but it does not fully explain why Belize remains trapped in a system where the people must absorb the cost of dependency.

The SIB confirms that March 2026 inflation reached 1.9%, and the housing/utilities category rose partly because of electricity tariff increases that took effect at the start of the year. Imports also rose sharply by 38.7% for March 2026, which matters because Belize’s electricity and fuel structure is deeply connected to imported energy and foreign exchange outflows.

1. The analysis treats electricity as a price issue, but it is really a sovereignty issue.

The central question is not only: Why did the tariff rise?

The deeper question is:

Why is Belize still unable to control the cost of one of the most essential inputs of national life?

Electricity determines:

• household survival,
• food prices,
• small business costs,
• manufacturing potential,
• tourism competitiveness,
• education access,
• healthcare operations,
• national productivity.

So, when electricity is unstable, the whole economy becomes unstable.

2. “Cost recovery” protects the system before it protects the people

BEL has asked the PUC to maintain the Mean Electricity Rate at about $0.4427 per kWh through July 31, 2028, and to approve an additional tariff of up to $0.0152 per kWh to recover short-run differences between forecasted and actual Cost of Power. BEL says this is driven by global energy prices and reliance on higher-cost power sources.

That may be technically true.

But here is the missing explanation:

Cost recovery means the consumer becomes the shock absorber.

When BEL pays more, the consumer eventually pays more.
When imported power rises, the consumer pays.
When projections are wrong, the consumer pays.
When the system delays renewable supply, the consumer pays.

The paper explains this as sustainability. But for the household, it feels like a hidden tax.

3. The “pass-through” system removes real pressure for transformation

If the Cost of Power is simply passed through to consumers, then where is the hard national pressure to redesign the system?

A pass-through model can become dangerous because it can normalize this cycle:

Imported dependency → higher cost → tariff review → consumer pays → system survives → dependency continues.

That is not transformation.
That is managed dependency.

4. Renewable energy is promising, but ownership is the real question

The 80 MW solar project is presented as a solution. It may indeed help. The project documents say Belize wants to reduce foreign exchange outflows to Mexico, increase energy security, and reach 75% renewable electricity generation by 2030.

But the same project structure shows that the selected private investor will design, build, finance, operate, and maintain the solar plants, then sign a Power Purchase Agreement with BEL and a Government Support Agreement over a 25-year term.

That is the missing national question:

Will Belize replace dependence on Mexico with dependence on private power contracts?

Solar panels alone do not guarantee sovereignty.
Battery storage alone does not guarantee affordability.
A renewable project can still become another long-term cost trap if the ownership, pricing formula, profit guarantees, and risk allocations are not transparent.

5. The consumer is being asked to trust a future benefit without seeing the full contract logic

The public is told: “Pay more now, benefit later.”

But Belizeans deserve to know:

Who owns the new generation?
What is the guaranteed return?
What is the PPA price per kWh?
What happens if solar production underperforms?
Who pays for land disputes, environmental risk, or grid upgrades?
Will savings be passed directly to consumers—or absorbed elsewhere?

Without those answers, “energy transition” becomes a slogan.

6. Low-income households may carry the heaviest burden

The solar project teaser itself notes that low-income households may spend up to 30% of pre-tax income on electricity.

That is not a small technical matter.

That means electricity is not merely a utility bill.
It is a poverty pressure point.

So when Dr. Almendarez calls the increase “statistically modest,” that may be true on paper—but it is not modest to a family already choosing between groceries, medicine, school expenses, and light.

7. The missing political economy: electricity decides whether Belize can industrialize

Belize cannot speak seriously about manufacturing, agro-processing, cold storage, digital services, irrigation, modern hospitals, or technical education if electricity remains expensive and uncertain.

High power costs punish production.

They keep Belize in a low-productivity economy:

• import,
• retail,
• consume,
• borrow,
• depend.

This is why electricity is not just an energy issue.
It is an economic independence issue.

8. The real conclusion Dr. Almendarez did not reach

His analysis concludes that tariff increases are part of a necessary transition.

A fuller conclusion would be:

Belize’s electricity crisis is not only the result of global energy prices. It is the result of a long-standing dependent structure in which imported power, regulated monopoly pricing, foreign-financed projects, and cost-recovery formulas place the final burden on households and small businesses. Until Belize confronts ownership, transparency, contract terms, and national energy sovereignty, tariff adjustments will continue to explain the pain without curing the disease.

Closing line:
Belize does not merely need cheaper electricity. Belize needs power over power itself.