Part 4A of the National Perspective Belize Investigative Series

By Omar Silva | Editor-Publisher

National Perspective Belize

www.nationalperspectivebz.com

Belize City: Tuesday 28th October

“We are in trouble right now with Mexico … when the heat is on, they take advantage of us.”

— Prime Minister John Briceño, October 2025

I. From Hydro Belize to Hydrocarbon Belize

Just one week after Parliament approved BZ $256 million in domestic borrowing to buy the Macal River dams and Fortis’s shares in BEL, Prime Minister Briceño unveiled a new energy proposal — this time powred not by water, but by natural gas ethane.

He named a company called Energy Transfer, announcing Cabinet’s approval of a “non-binding MOU” for the generation of 50 megawatts of power.

That is the sum total of what Belizeans were told.

No project site, no ownership breakdown, no cost, no supply chain, no timeline, no regulatory review.

Once again, the nation is asked to trust an invisible hand with its energy future.

II. Who Is Energy Transfer?

A quick search reveals that Energy Transfer LP is a Texas-based Fortune 500 pipeline and LNG conglomerate valued above US $150 billion, operating export terminals across the U.S. Gulf.

It is unclear, however, whether this is the same entity negotiating with Belize or whether a local proxy bearing the same name has been formed.

No corporate registration has yet appeared in the Belize Companies and Corporate Affairs Registry; neither BEL nor the Ministry of Energy has issued a disclosure notice.

If the counter-party is Energy Transfer LP, Belize would be entering a long-term gas-to-power relationship with one of the largest fossil-fuel exporters in the Western Hemisphere — a deal that could anchor the country’s generation mix to foreign hydrocarbons for decades.

III. The Ethane Equation

Ethane, a light hydrocarbon separated from natural gas, burns cleaner than diesel but still emits carbon.

To generate 50 MW, Belize would need a steady feedstock of roughly 20 million cubic feet per day, likely imported by ship to the Port of Big Creek or a new coastal terminal.

That implies:

• Expensive port retrofitting for cryogenic handling;
• High foreign-exchange exposure, since the gas would be denominated in USD;
• Regulatory delays for environmental clearance under Belize’s Petroleum Operations (Offshore Zone) Regulations.

The environmental irony is sharp: while Government celebrates hydropower “sovereignty,” it simultaneously courts fossil-fuel dependence.

IV. The Numbers Behind the Curtain

Variable                                               Likely Figure / Estimate                                  Observation

Generation capacity                               50 MW                                             ≈ 25 % of Belize’s average base load

Capital cost (regional average)           US $ 0.9 – 1.2 million / MW                 ≈ US $ 45 – 60 million project

Fuel import cost at US $ 7 / MMBtu        US $ 35 million / yr                     Subject to LNG/ethane market swings

Expected tariff (delivered)                   BZ $ 0.35 – 0.42 / kWh                      Comparable to current CFE imports

Contract horizon (typical)                          15 – 20 years                              Long-term foreign currency lock-in

In short: the economics only work if Belize guarantees off-take at prices near what it already pays Mexico.

There is no clear evidence this project will lower consumer rates.

V. Policy Whiplash

Within ten days, Belize’s official energy narrative has pivoted from “renewable independence” to “urgent fossil relief.”

This whiplash reveals a government without an integrated energy plan.

If Hydro Belize is to supply base load from the Macal dams, why the rush to sign a gas MOU for another 50 MW?

If the problem lies with CFE’s variable pricing, why not diversify through solar and biomass — both abundant, domestic, and debt-free?

The contradiction is clear: Belize borrows to buy renewable dams, then courts hydrocarbons to cover the gaps those dams cannot fill.

VI. Risk of a Two-Tier Grid

BEL already faces liquidity strain.

Layering a foreign-currency gas contract atop existing hydro and import PPAs could create a two-tier grid: one rate for imported fossil generation, another for domestic renewables.

Without transparent tariff modeling by the Public Utilities Commission, consumers may soon discover that their “energy security” surcharge funds a foreign gas supply chain instead of local generation.

VII. Questions Belize Must Ask

1. Was the Energy Transfer MOU publicly tendered?
2. Who negotiated on Belize’s behalf — BEL, the Ministry, or Cabinet sub-committee?
3. Will the fuel be sourced from the U.S. Gulf, Mexican PEMEX, or regional LNG brokers?
4. What are the projected emissions and climate obligations under Belize’s NDC?
5. What currency and guarantees back the deal?

Until these answers are published, every promise of “cheaper electricity” is speculation.

VIII. Energy Sovereignty or Energy Swap?

If this project proceeds in secrecy, Hydro Belize risks becoming symbolic — a patriotic façade masking a new era of dependency.

The same administration that declared, “We are now the proud owners of our own destiny,” may soon sign a twenty-year gas contract that binds Belize to the volatility of global fossil markets.

Energy sovereignty cannot coexist with opacity.

Belize cannot keep trading one master for another — from Fortis to CFE to Energy Transfer — while citizens are left with higher bills and unanswered questions.

IX. The Road Ahead

True energy independence begins with data transparency, diversified renewables, and public accountability.

Belize must demand:

• Publication of the full MOU,
• Environmental and fiscal impact assessments,
• A national consultation on long-term generation mix.

Only then can the phrase “power to the people” mean more than a slogan.

National Perspective Belize

Holding Power to Account / Manteniendo al Poder Bajo Vigilancia