By: Omar Silva I Editor/Publisher

National Perspective Belize Investigative Feature

www.nationmalperspectivebz.com

Belize City: Thursday 11th December 2025

INTRODUCTION: COOKED, BAKED, OR AIR-FRIED—THE NUMBERS STILL RAW

In a nation struggling under high food prices, shrinking wages, spiraling debt, business closures, and historic outward migration, the Statistical Institute of Belize (SIB) now presents a glossy picture of prosperity:

• 6.1% GDP growth,
• 1.9% unemployment,
• a drop in multidimensional poverty,
• and “improved performance” across almost every sector.

On paper, Belize is booming.

On the ground, Belizeans cannot even afford a full grocery bag.

This investigative feature puts these numbers under the microscope — and what emerges is not economic growth, but statistical reconstruction designed to sell Belizeans a fantasy.

I. GDP GROWTH WITHOUT PRODUCTION: The First Red Flag

SIB Claim:

Belize’s economy expanded by 6.1%, driven by agriculture, fishing, construction, retail, and taxes.

Reality:

There is no corresponding increase in real output to support this number.

1. Sugar sector collapse

Cane yields have plummeted due to:

• Drought
• Heat stress
• Burning
• The spread of Fusarium
• Farmer abandonment of fields
• Delayed payments and quota disputes

A collapsing sugar industry cannot produce growth.

2. Citrus sector in severe decline

HLB disease has destroyed orchards. Production is at its lowest in decades.

No surge exists — certainly not the kind required to move national GDP.

3. Shrimp & aquaculture still recovering

Production is slow, heavily constrained, and nowhere near its peak.

Where, then, does the “primary sector boom” come from?

4. Livestock exports modest at best

Even with slight improvements, livestock growth cannot generate 20.6% sector expansion.

5. Fisheries under pressure

Conch quotas reduced. Lobster season inconsistencies. Climate shocks.

No structural growth.

II. THE SMOKING GUN: TAXES As a Major Contributor to GDP

This alone discredits the GDP figure.

SIB admits that tax extraction was one of the primary drivers of GDP growth.

This does not mean Belize produced more wealth.

It means government took more from already-struggling Belizeans.

GDP rises when taxation rises — but:

• No new jobs are created
• No new industries appear
• No new exports emerge
• No household sees real benefit

This is not growth.

This is statistical inflation of GDP through fiscal pressure.

III. 1.9% UNEMPLOYMENT — A NUMBER THAT DEFIES LOGIC AND REALITY

SIB now claims Belize has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the world — lower than:

• The United States
• Japan
• Mexico
• Singapore
• Canada
• China
• Cuba

This is mathematically and economically impossible.

1. Belize has not created enough jobs to justify this number

• No new major industries
• No manufacturing expansion
• Tourism remains seasonal
• Construction is project-based
• Thousands of youths remain without employment

2. Massive migration contradicts the narrative

Belizeans are fleeing the country in record numbers.

People do not flee nations with “1.9% unemployment.”

3. The definition was manipulated

To be counted as unemployed, a person must:

• Have looked for work in the last 4 weeks
• Be ready to start in 2 weeks

If someone has given up looking for a job because there are none —

the SIB no longer counts them as unemployed.

This artificially lowers the rate while poverty rises.

4. A shrinking labour force = artificial low unemployment

This is the same statistical trick used in distressed economies worldwide.

Belize is not experiencing job growth.

It is experiencing labour force dropout.

IV. MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY: The Disappearing Poor

SIB claims:

• Poverty fell from 22.1% to 19.1%
• 13,095 Belizeans “escaped poverty”

Yet at the same time:

• Overcrowding increased
• Informal employment increased
• Dependency ratio worsened

These indicators are incompatible with a genuine poverty reduction.

If poverty is falling:

• Overcrowding should fall
• Informal employment should fall
• Dependency should fall

Belize is experiencing the opposite.

Cost of living has skyrocketed

• Food prices: up 30–80%
• Rent: up sharply in every district
• Utilities: increasing burden
• Gas: remains costly
• Wages: stagnant or falling in real value

Families are worse off today than five years ago.

So how can poverty fall?

By adjusting the formula, not improving the reality.

V. THE GDP–POVERTY–UNEMPLOYMENT TRIFECTA THAT CANNOT EXIST

Economies follow predictable relationships:

IF GDP rises

AND unemployment falls

→ poverty falls

IF poverty rises

OR if informal work rises

→ unemployment cannot be 1.9%

→ GDP cannot be genuinely expanding

But in Belize’s report:

Indicator                              SIB Claim                                         Ground Reality

GDP                                         ↑ Up                                    No production increase, inflation disguised as growth

Unemployment                        ↓ Near zero                        Youth joblessness + mass migration

Poverty                                    ↓ Down                              Cost of living crushing households

Overcrowding                          ↑ Up                                  Poverty rising

Informal employment                ↑ Up                                 Economic stress rising

These numbers cannot coexist in any real economy.

Unless the measurements were engineered.

VI. THE REAL ECONOMIC STORY SIB IS NOT REPORTING

✔ Belize’s GDP growth is inflation-driven, not production-driven

✔ Unemployment is disguised through narrow definitions

✔ Poverty appears reduced through statistical reclassification

✔ The labour force is shrinking

✔ Government borrowing continues at record levels

✔ Belizeans are poorer today than at any point in the last decade

Belizeans are not feeling 6.1% prosperity.

They are feeling 6.1% more pressure.

CONCLUSION: A MANUFACTURED MIRACLE IN A STRUGGLING NATION

The SIB report is not a reflection of Belize’s economic reality.

It is a political instrument polished to create the illusion of success in the face of rising hardship.

It tells Belizeans they are thriving while:

• They hustle multiple jobs
• Their grocery bill doubles
• Their rent skyrockets
• Their children migrate
• Their wages stagnate
• Their industries collapse
• Their debt expands
• Their poverty deepens

This is not national progress.

This is national gaslighting.

Belize does not need cooked numbers.

Belize needs truth, accountability, and reform.

And National Perspective Belize will continue to expose the difference between reality and the statistical fantasy being fed to the people.